389
FXUS63 KIWX 190414
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1214 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN MUCH WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAD
MOVED EAST OUT OF NORTHERN INDIANA. UPSTREAM DEW POINTS BEHIND
THE FRONT WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS IS A CLASSIC SET UP
FOR VERY CHILLY EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND WITH THE DRY AND CHILLY ARE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. IN THIS REGARD, AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY AND A FREEZE
WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 33 AND 35 DEGREES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES FARTHER SOUTH.
VERY MILD WEATHER IS AHEAD THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE +8C TO +14C RANGE PER GFS; FULLY SUPPORTIVE OF THESE
WARM TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE NORTH LATE
FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 1.50" FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN
FOR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK, BUT
AT THIS TIME UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOOK TO ATTEMPT TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
CLOUDS LINGER OVER KFWA THIS HOUR ON THE FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF A
COLD FRONT TRACKING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOOK FOR SKIES TO
TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM, ATTENTION TURNS TO A COMPACT MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE RACES SOUTHEAST AND
COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP THANKS TO ROBUST
FORCING ALOFT, NON-ZERO INSTABILITY, AND AN ACCEPTABLE MOISTURE
COLUMN TO ABOUT 16,000 FT. THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS LESS
ORGANIZED ON KFWA TIME-HEIGHTS, SO, OPTED FOR VFR THERE. BECAUSE
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AT SUNSET.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081-177-
277.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...BROWN
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