521
FXUS63 KIWX 021722
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REMAINING CHILLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE
AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- MILDER AND BECOMING BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%)
FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
- WARM AND BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH CHANCES (40-50%) FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BEYOND MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
(50-80%) TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL RIDGING
TO HOLD WITH TRANQUIL, YET STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL, WEATHER TO
LINGER INTO TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES EARLY THIS
MORNING REGARDING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS, WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
POTENTIALLY NEEDED TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY NE IN/SW MI/NW OH WHERE
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MORE DELAYED.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY BREEZY AND MILD LOOK AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMPS UP UNDER FLATTENED FLOW ALOFT. THIS WARM
ADVECTION REGIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MAY ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CLIP AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF US 30 ON SUNDAY, THOUGH
LACKING DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT PRECLUDES ANYTHING GREATER THAN A 20%
POP. THE LEADING EDGE OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN THE
VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING WEAK WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION OFF
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
DRY/MILDER WX ANTICIPATED LOCALLY DURING THIS TIME.
THE GENERAL OUTLOOK OF A MORE ACTIVE/WET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION, MERGING IN SOME FASHION WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH EJECTING EAST FROM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WITHIN AN ASSOCIATED SOUTHEASTWARD SINKING
FRONTAL ZONE DURING THESE PERIODS, HIGHEST (50-70%) MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR ISO-SCT STRONG-SEVERE
CONVECTION POSSIBLY ALONG THE SFC FRONT DURING THE MONDAY PM HOURS
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MODEST INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THOUGH SOMEWHAT DELAYED FORCING AND
QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE QUALITY REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED SVR WX THREAT AT THIS TIME. LOWLAND/RIVER FLOODING
PROBABLY THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT BY TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT IF A
STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS, THOUGH MODEL INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT PROGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS. COOLER THEN IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE MID-LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD. A
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AFTER 12Z SUN BRINGING
INCREASES IN WINDS, LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR MVFR, AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR KSBN.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 13Z TO 17Z SUN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ006>009-017-
018-023>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ079>081.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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