297
FXUS63 KIWX 051731
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING,
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES (30-60%)
RETURNING FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEHIND A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, AND IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (PORTLAND IN TO
LIMA-OTTAWA OH).
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/FORCING AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A STALLING UPPER MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS DEVELOPING CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE RAIN WITH MUCH OF NW IN
AND SW MI POTENTIALLY RAIN-FREE DURING THE PM HOURS AS DRIER LOW
LEVEL UNDERCUTS THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. COOL AND MAINLY CLOUDY
OTHERWISE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH AXIS. HEIGHTS DO RELAX
A BIT FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SIGNALING A SLIGHT WARMUP TO
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST HOWEVER, SENDING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THESE WAVES PER A MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORS FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCES (30-60%) FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND THE LLJ, THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-24, WHICH AFFECTS FWA, BUT
LIKELY KEEPS SBN IN VFR CONDITIONS. FWA LIKELY SEES MVFR CONDITIONS
AS THE RAIN AFFECTS IT. BETTER MOISTURE SINKS FROM THE MID- DOWN TO
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAKING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 20 AND 00Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A RETURN TO VFR THEREAFTER.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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