541
FXUS63 KIWX 060546
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.
CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS
AROUND 40 DEGREES.
- COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. AREAS OF FROST ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN MICHIGAN AND FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF US 30 IN INDIANA AND OHIO. WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH
DAY, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA, WITH A SFC
TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALOFT, FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW TODAY, WITH A
BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT 300MB, A 120KT JET STREAK FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO
QUEBEC WILL COUPLE WITH A 130KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SW INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO LATER THIS EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION-
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24. A SURFACE LOW-TYPE FEATURE
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH TIME, WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF IT (BEST TRANSPORT TO US
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING). UPSTREAM T-STORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SPARSE THUS FAR, BUT WITH BETTER FORCING ARRIVING ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (PEAK HEATING), WE COULD
SEE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT FOR A BRIEF TIME. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, IN THE FAR NW WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LOWEST-EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES.
FOR AREAS NORTH OF US 24, EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF
US 24, ENDING BY MORNING. LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED 500MB LOW OVER JAMES BAY/HUDSON LAKE WILL BRING A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH DURING THIS TIME, BUT DRY AIR IS LIKELY
TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THU PM/FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S. AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
MICHIGAN AND FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US 30 IN INDIANA AND OHIO.
WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED
WITH FROST.
WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
DURING THE DAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FROM NW TO SE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, REACHING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 7AM ET
SATURDAY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER A LULL SATURDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. A SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE BY
SUNDAY MORNING RIGHT OVER IL/IN, AND CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHER-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THIS PERIOD, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S, LOW-MID 70S, THEN DROP INTO THE 60S, LOW 70S BY
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY CLIP KFWA
VICINITY THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z, BUT OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR
RAIN FOCUSING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AS THIS FRONTOGENESIS AXIS
SLIPS SOUTH. THE LAGGING PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED BY THIS TIME. AFTER A DECREASE IN MORNING
CLOUDS, SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN TERMS OF WINDS, A SFC TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK WESTERLY GRADIENT MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING PEAK MIXING TODAY,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...MARSILI
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