777
FXUS63 KIWX 060833
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
433 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END EARLY TODAY.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FROST
TONIGHT.
- A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN IS AHEAD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS LOW BROUGHT
SHOWERS AND CHILLY AIR TO THE REGION YESTERDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROST FORMATION
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AS TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 30S. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S. PONDERED HEADLINES FOR THIS UPCOMING NIGHT WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES - THE CONSENSUS WAS TO DEFER ANY HEADLINES TO THE
DAYSHIFT. THE POSSIBILITY, EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD FORMATION
TONIGHT UNDER THE HIGH-BASED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL MAKE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CHALLENGING.
A MILDER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FARTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SHIFTS EAST AND AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AMPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVEL EAST IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
APPEAR LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY CLIP KFWA
VICINITY THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z, BUT OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR
RAIN FOCUSING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AS THIS FRONTOGENESIS AXIS
SLIPS SOUTH. THE LAGGING PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED BY THIS TIME. AFTER A DECREASE IN MORNING
CLOUDS, SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN TERMS OF WINDS, A SFC TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK WESTERLY GRADIENT MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING PEAK MIXING TODAY,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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