331
FXUS63 KIWX 070813
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
413 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
70 BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
CHILLY TEMPERATURES WERE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORINNG
WHERE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED. A FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER ALL OF FAR SOUTHWESTS LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE SOME CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS WERE STILL HOLDING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 40 DEGREES AS OF 3 AM EDT.
A LARGE UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. 500 MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WERE IN THE VICINIOTY OF NEGATIVE 400 METERS PER GFS.
IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WERE HELPING TO GENERATE
LIGHT SHOWERS. A STRONG IMPULSE WILL TOP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAXIMUM CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THEN 400 J/KG. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY, BUT ELS WILL BE QUITE LOW - GENERALLY UNDER 15K. NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES THIS MORNING. THESE SHORT WAVES ARE
WORKING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE ONLY EFFECT THROUGH THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY ONLY BE EVIDENT WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
AND MID CLOUD. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME INCREASING
ADVECTIVE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
COULD INDUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE ADVECTIVE FORCING IS STRONGEST, BUT
SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY A PROB30 GROUP AT KFWA FOR TONIGHT
WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVER IS EXPECTED ALONG PRIMARY
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THIS PERIOD WITH SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS
TODAY INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE (SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS)
DURING PEAK DIURNAL MIXING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081-177-
277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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