698
FXUS63 KIWX 080827
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
427 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY AND AROUND 70 SATURDAY.
- SEASONABLY COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 60.
- PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERS
OVER EASTERN CANADA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WERE AROUND 400 METERS BELOW
NORMAL FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. YESTERDAY'S
TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE COOL PATTERN WILL GENERATE SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SATURATED
OR CLOSE TO SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 30,000 FT. ANOTHER
IN THE SERIES OF THESE WAVES WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE OF GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
MICHIGAN BORDER.
THIS COOL PATTERN WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. VEGETATION DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
ADVANCED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE LARGE NUMBER OF GROWING
DEGREE DAYS (ALREADY NEAR OR EXCEEDING 400 SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN
BORDER). HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER LOW TEMPERATURES
THESE COLD NIGHTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A LULL IN THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DEPARTURE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FGEN FORCING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE LINING UP BACK TO THE WEST FROM KMUT TO KPNT IN THE VICINITY
OF LEFTOVER STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT. ADVECTIVE
FORCING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS, WHILE NORTHERN INDIANA
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE A BREAK IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LOW PROBABILITIES OF RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN, PARTICULARLY AT KFWA WHICH WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH ADVECTIVE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL ALSO TRACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. KSBN SHOULD BE POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH
NORTH OF THE FORCING FOR JUST LOW PROBS OF RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 MENTION
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER MID-LATE
EVENING AT KFWA AS COOL FRONT FEATURE SHIFTS ACROSS NE INDIANA.
AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE AT KFWA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VERY
WEAK AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY MAKE THIS PROBABILITY QUITE LOW
(~10%). SOME STRATUS AND FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEHIND SFC
TROUGH FEATURE TONIGHT, WITH BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
KFWA FOR LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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