853
FXUS63 KIWX 081038
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY AND AROUND 70 SATURDAY.
- SEASONABLY COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 60.
- PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERS
OVER EASTERN CANADA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WERE AROUND 400 METERS BELOW
NORMAL FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. YESTERDAY'S
TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE COOL PATTERN WILL GENERATE SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SATURATED
OR CLOSE TO SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 30,000 FT. ANOTHER
IN THE SERIES OF THESE WAVES WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE OF GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
MICHIGAN BORDER.
THIS COOL PATTERN WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. VEGETATION DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
ADVANCED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE LARGE NUMBER OF GROWING
DEGREE DAYS (ALREADY NEAR OR EXCEEDING 400 SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN
BORDER). HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER LOW TEMPERATURES
THESE COLD NIGHTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS TO THE KMIE AREA. WHILE NORTHERN INDIANA APPEARS TO BE
SITUATED BETWEEN TWO MORE PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES EARLY THIS MORNING, THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE FEEDING OFF
THE LEADING EDGE OF A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION. WITH MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING, THERE
SHOULD BE A DECENT SOUTH TO NORTH CUT-OFF WITH THESE SHOWERS,
WITH KFWA APPEARING TO BE BEST ALIGNED WITH THIS ADVECTIVE
FORCING FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE REGARDING EVOLUTION OF
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON PERIOD, BUT ALL
INDICATIONS STILL POINT TO A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
BEGINNING TO AFFECT NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE SHOULD STRENGTHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR INCREASED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE
FROM THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THIS EVENING,
PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. SHOWERS SHOULD WANE LATER THIS EVENING AS
STRONGER FORCING SLIPS SOUTHEAST WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE. WILL LIMIT PRECIP MENTION TO PROB30 AT KSBN, A BIT MORE
DIVORCED FROM BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADVECTIVE FORCING.
DID MAINTAIN A TREND TO SOME LIGHT FOG/STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT BEHIND WEAK SFC TROUGH, WITH KFWA BETTER ALIGNED WITH
MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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