406
FXUS63 KIWX 081744
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
144 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US-30.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AFTER A BRIEF OVERNIGHT LULL, SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.15 TO
0.30 INCH SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-20.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. /HAMMER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT FRI MAY 8):
AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERS
OVER EASTERN CANADA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WERE AROUND 400 METERS BELOW
NORMAL FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. YESTERDAY'S
TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE COOL PATTERN WILL GENERATE SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SATURATED
OR CLOSE TO SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 30,000 FT. ANOTHER
IN THE SERIES OF THESE WAVES WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE OF GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
MICHIGAN BORDER.
THIS COOL PATTERN WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. VEGETATION DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
ADVANCED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE LARGE NUMBER OF GROWING
DEGREE DAYS (ALREADY NEAR OR EXCEEDING 400 SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN
BORDER). HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER LOW TEMPERATURES
THESE COLD NIGHTS. /SKIPPER
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A FEW VFR SHOWERS RECENTLY PASSED OVER KFWA WITH A SOMEWHAT
LARGER AREA OF RAIN UPSTREAM AND HEADING TOWARDS THE SITE. ONLY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WAS TO MOVE UP THE ARRIVAL BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBY
ISSUES, BUT THE RAIN WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
DRYNESS. LEFT THE PROB30 AT KSBN, I COULD EASILY SEE LITTLE IF
ANYTHING OCCURRING THERE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DISTURBANCE SOME STRATUS/MIST APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE KEPT WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, BUT BRIEF
BOUTS OF IFR COULD OCCUR. WILL LET LATER FORECASTS DEAL WITH
THIS AFTER WE SEE THE IMPACTS OF THE RAINFALL.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAMMER
AVIATION...FISHER
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