344
FXUS63 KIWX 221721
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. STORMS NOT SEVERE, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EACH DAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- WARMING FURTHER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM 75 TO 85 EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. ONE THING THAT
HAS SLIGHTLY CHANGED IS THE FORECASTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH VALUES TRENDING LOWER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THE DISTURBANCE SLIDING A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST HAS
GENERALLY AROUND 0.50" FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF THE I-69
CORRIDOR AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE 0.75" MARK.
THERE IS LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY WHERE
ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE, STILL LOOKING AT WARMING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH DEW
POINT VALUES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND EVEN MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS AND MAKE FOR GENERALLY UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN HOLDS FAIRLY STEADY WITH BOUTS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY INTO
NEXT WEEK, BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHS BY MEMORIAL DAY
AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AIR
CONDITIONING USE WILL BE ON AN UPTICK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO HELP MITIGATE THE IMPACTS OF THE MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA
OF VORTICITY THAT PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
OF US-24. LOWERED CEILINGS AND TIMES OF LOWERED VISIBILITY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AS SOME OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME
SATURATED WITH MVFR AND IFR AND POSSIBLY AIRPORT MINIMUM CONDITIONS
ON TAP. AS THIS AREA OF FORCING MOVES THROUGH, STILL EXPECT
PREVAILING EAST WINDS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN WINDS GAIN A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS. AS THE VORTICITY CENTER
PULLS AWAY SATURDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE
GRADIENT DECREASES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...ROLLER
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