811
FXUS63 KIWX 221746
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT, THEN
TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL (1" PLUS), MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (50-70%) AND ISOLATED STORMS
- WARMER AND MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
A NORTHWARD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL ALLOW
RAIN TO SPREAD NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GREATEST CHANCES (>60% PER HREF) FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OH
WHERE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DRAWS IN DEEPER MOISTURE. UP TO
AROUND A HALF INCH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, SAVE FOR FAR WESTERN IN AND
SOUTHWEST MI WHERE LIGHTER RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED.
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST, THOUGH SOME RENEWED DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WITH THE DIURNAL
CYCLE AS SOME VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, BEST
CHANCES (50-70%) DURING THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THIS GO AROUND HOWEVER DUE TO MORE NEBULOUS
FORCING.
A TREND TOWARD WARMER, ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES BECOME THE PRIMARY
STORY NEXT WEEK ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL US AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES LOCKED UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR A STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MID-LATE WEEK AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY DROPS THROUGH (LOW CONFIDENCE).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA
OF VORTICITY THAT PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
OF US-24. LOWERED CEILINGS AND TIMES OF LOWERED VISIBILITY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AS SOME OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME
SATURATED WITH MVFR AND IFR AND POSSIBLY AIRPORT MINIMUM CONDITIONS
ON TAP. AS THIS AREA OF FORCING MOVES THROUGH, STILL EXPECT
PREVAILING EAST WINDS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN WINDS GAIN A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS. AS THE VORTICITY CENTER
PULLS AWAY SATURDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE
GRADIENT DECREASES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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