233
FXUS63 KIWX 230008
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
808 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT, THEN
TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL (1" PLUS), MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (50-70%) AND ISOLATED STORMS
- WARMER AND MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
A NORTHWARD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL ALLOW
RAIN TO SPREAD NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GREATEST CHANCES (>60% PER HREF) FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OH
WHERE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DRAWS IN DEEPER MOISTURE. UP TO
AROUND A HALF INCH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, SAVE FOR FAR WESTERN IN AND
SOUTHWEST MI WHERE LIGHTER RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED.
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST, THOUGH SOME RENEWED DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WITH THE DIURNAL
CYCLE AS SOME VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, BEST
CHANCES (50-70%) DURING THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THIS GO AROUND HOWEVER DUE TO MORE NEBULOUS
FORCING.
A TREND TOWARD WARMER, ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES BECOME THE PRIMARY
STORY NEXT WEEK ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL US AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES LOCKED UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR A STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MID-LATE WEEK AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY DROPS THROUGH (LOW CONFIDENCE).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS THIS
PERIOD, WITH DROPS TO LOW END-IFR AND LIFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS FROM KY INTO IN/NW
OH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN INTO SE LOWER MI/LAKE
ERIE/ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN AREA
OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE TERMINALS, MOVING GENERALLY FROM
S-SE TO N-NW. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROP DURING THIS PERIOD AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES IN TOWARDS MORNING-WHICH COULD GIVE US THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS (SOME GUIDANCE HAS AS LOW AS 300
FT AT KFWA/KSBN). RAIN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY, WITH CEILINGS SHIFTING TO
HIGHER-END IFR/MVFR CLOSER TO 21Z. WINDS SHIFT FROM E-NE TO
W-NW, LIKELY AROUND 15-18Z AND BEYOND. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD
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