357
FXUS63 KIWX 230542
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
142 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT, THEN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (1" PLUS), MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (50-70%) AND ISOLATED STORMS
- WARMER AND MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
A NORTHWARD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL ALLOW
RAIN TO SPREAD NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GREATEST CHANCES (>60% PER HREF) FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OH
WHERE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DRAWS IN DEEPER MOISTURE. UP TO
AROUND A HALF INCH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, SAVE FOR FAR WESTERN IN AND
SOUTHWEST MI WHERE LIGHTER RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED.
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST, THOUGH SOME RENEWED DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WITH THE DIURNAL
CYCLE AS SOME VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, BEST
CHANCES (50-70%) DURING THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THIS GO AROUND HOWEVER DUE TO MORE NEBULOUS
FORCING.
A TREND TOWARD WARMER, ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES BECOME THE PRIMARY
STORY NEXT WEEK ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL US AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES LOCKED UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR A STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MID-LATE WEEK AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY DROPS THROUGH (LOW CONFIDENCE).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CIG/VSBYS FOR BOTH TERMINALS THIS PERIOD,
WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS CIG DROPS INTO LIFR POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH THE NORTHERLY MOVING AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND EVEN PERIODS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF THAT AT
THIS TIME AND OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM. AS THE
CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FROM KY BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEASTERLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND CIGS IMPROVE TO
MVFR AROUND 21Z SAT. WINDS SHIFT FROM E-NE TO W-NW, LIKELY
AROUND 15-18Z AND BEYOND. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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