347
FXUS63 KIWX 231729
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
129 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT, THEN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (1" PLUS), MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (50-70%) AND ISOLATED STORMS
- WARMER AND MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IN PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED AND
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER KFWA AS OF 0730Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THUS FAR HAS BEEN PRETTY VARIED WITH VALUES AROUND 0.75" FROM
KFWA AND EASTWARD WHILE LIGHTER AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE FALLEN. HERE AT THE WEATHER OFFICE WE
HAD ABOUT 0.13" AS OF 06Z. THIS CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY VARIED WITH NORTHERLY LOCATIONS
UNDER THE MAIN CLOUD BAND A BIT COOLER WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WHILE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK WILL SEE VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEEL A BIT ON THE MUGGY
SIDE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50 TO UPPER 60S WITH
THE BETTER MOISTURE SET UP TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.
ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTAINING LESS IMPRESSIVE FORCING BUT BETTER SURFACE
INSTABILITY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S) PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS BUT A BETTER CHANCES FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, NONE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE LACK OF DECENT FORCING AND SHEAR
COMPONENTS.
BY MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ALONG WITH FURTHER WARMING.
HIGHS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL STILL FEEL MORE ON THE MUGGY SIDE
HOWEVER THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH THE RIDGING IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP IT THAT WAY UNTIL
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTHWARD WITH
A HIGHER AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A JUMP IN
DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND THE LOW 70S AND INCREASE
CHANCES IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
GUIDANCE INCREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGING LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES OUT AS THE VORT MAX CAUSING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
STILL, ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY MEANING WINDS REGAIN A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THIS COMPLEX
HOKEY POKEY OF TAKING MOISTURE IN AND OUT OF THE COLUMN THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN IS USUAL ON MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT RAP
TIME -SECTIONS DO INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN BY 12Z AND PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS AFTER 6Z. AS SUCH, WILL REINTRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
LOW CIGS, BUT GUIDANCE IS ALSO REINTRODUCING SOME LOW MVFR/IFR VISBY
REDUCTIONS IN THE I-69 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUDS FROM AN APPROACHING
MOISTURE AXIS DON'T STUNT RADIATIONAL COOLING. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY, EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...ROLLER
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