593
FXUS63 KIWX 231742
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
142 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS EXPECTED (70-80%) ON SUNDAY. A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (20-30%).
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30. HIGHEST CHANCES (30-60%) WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY THE LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR KTOL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LULL IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND ITS BACK SIDE MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE IN CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH 4-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST OH AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MI.
A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTHEAST OK WILL
GET A KICK NORTHEAST BY A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE ADVANCING EAST
TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE
FEATURES SHOULD GENERATE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS (60-80%), AND PERHAPS
A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS, IN THE VICINITY OF AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 69
SUNDAY MORNING FOR RAIN CHANCES, EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH FAIR WX AND WARMER HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S. A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS DOES ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE US
30 CORRIDOR IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASING OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISO
STORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US 30,
BEST CHANCES (30-60%) ON WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THESE PERIODS WILL
LIKELY BE DRY GIVEN THE NEBULOUS FORCING AS RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDS
ALOFT. WARM (HIGHS LOW 80S) AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID OTHERWISE WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.
ENSEMBLES BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUE TO DRIVE AN
EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF RENEWED NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER TROUGHING. LOWER
HUMIDITY, SLIGHTLY COOLER/SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORED IN THIS DRY AND SUBSIDENT CANADIAN AIR MASS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES OUT AS THE VORT MAX CAUSING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
STILL, ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY MEANING WINDS REGAIN A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THIS COMPLEX
HOKEY POKEY OF TAKING MOISTURE IN AND OUT OF THE COLUMN THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN IS USUAL ON MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT RAP
TIME -SECTIONS DO INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN BY 12Z AND PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS AFTER 6Z. AS SUCH, WILL REINTRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
LOW CIGS, BUT GUIDANCE IS ALSO REINTRODUCING SOME LOW MVFR/IFR VISBY
REDUCTIONS IN THE I-69 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUDS FROM AN APPROACHING
MOISTURE AXIS DON'T STUNT RADIATIONAL COOLING. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY, EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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