912
FXUS63 KIWX 240013
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
813 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS EXPECTED (70-80%) ON SUNDAY. A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (20-30%).
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30. HIGHEST CHANCES (30-60%) WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY THE LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR KTOL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LULL IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND ITS BACK SIDE MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE IN CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH 4-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST OH AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MI.
A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTHEAST OK WILL
GET A KICK NORTHEAST BY A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE ADVANCING EAST
TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE
FEATURES SHOULD GENERATE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS (60-80%), AND PERHAPS
A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS, IN THE VICINITY OF AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 69
SUNDAY MORNING FOR RAIN CHANCES, EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH FAIR WX AND WARMER HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S. A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS DOES ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE US
30 CORRIDOR IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASING OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISO
STORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US 30,
BEST CHANCES (30-60%) ON WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THESE PERIODS WILL
LIKELY BE DRY GIVEN THE NEBULOUS FORCING AS RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDS
ALOFT. WARM (HIGHS LOW 80S) AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID OTHERWISE WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.
ENSEMBLES BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUE TO DRIVE AN
EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF RENEWED NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER TROUGHING. LOWER
HUMIDITY, SLIGHTLY COOLER/SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORED IN THIS DRY AND SUBSIDENT CANADIAN AIR MASS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD,
WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AM. THE
FIRST VORT MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS SHOWERS/LOWER CEILINGS IS
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO
BRIEFLY BREAK THIS EVENING BEFORE DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM AGAIN AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DROPS CEILINGS TO 500-700 FEET, WITH BR
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-3SM. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DOES HAVE
CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 300-400FT, BUT DIDN'T FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ADD INTO THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TOWARDS
MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 12Z FOR
KSBN, 15Z AT KFWA. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TOWARDS MVFR/VFR IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD
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