079
FXUS63 KIWX 241756
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHWEST MI AS OF 18Z WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ANCHORED TO A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK 30 KT MID LEVEL JETLET LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASET THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SKINNY/TALL CAPE AND NEAR 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
ACT TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
A DRIER, SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
BEHIND TODAY'S SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL. FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY GIVEN LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE,
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SUNNIER SKIES IN THIS REGIME
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WARMEST ON TUESDAY.
A RATHER STAGNANT, NEAR OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SETTLES IN MIDWEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, WITH TROUGHING INTO
THE NORTHWEST US AND ANOMALOUS RIDGING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TRANSITION DOES SEND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
MOISTURE-LADEN 700MB IMPULSE AND WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARD THE US 30 CORRIDOR. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING LOW CHANCES (10-
30%, HIGHEST SOUTH OF US 30) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND LIKELY DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY AND THE MERGED FRONTS LIKELY
SETTLE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA AND THIS PROVIDES A QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO BACK TO VFR AT SBN WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS IS
THROUGH FWA BY AROUND 23Z THIS EVENING AND SO IT'LL ALSO GO
FROM MVFR CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. THE ONE THING WE'LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR IS THAT ANOTHER RESURGENCE OF HAZE OCCURS MONDAY
MORNING, SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, AS AN INVERSION FORMS AND
TRAPS ANY REMAINING SURFACE MOISTURE BELOW IT. BUFKIT NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT COULD BE MORE FOG THAN HAZE THIS TIME
THOUGH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LOT MORE RELAXED ON MONDAY,
REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS SUSTAINED, AND MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES BY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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