517
FXUS63 KIWX 271346
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
946 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND SOUTH
OF US ROUTE 24 SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
- SEASONABLY WARM FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. LITTLE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE VARIATION THEN
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN MID-
UPPER 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT PERSISTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. RAP 13Z ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS RANGING
FROM AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO AROUND 0.7
INCHES CLOSER TO THE IN/MI STATELINE. THE COMBINATION OF A
SHARED VORT FILAMENT HAVING LIFTED NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE HAVE ALLOWED FOR A STRIPE OF MODERATE RAINFALL CLIPPING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THROUGH
TIME THIS VORT FILAMENT SHOULD GET INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER SOME WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
TEND WEAKEN AND BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH TIME INTO
EAST CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MESONET
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR ESTIMATIONS, STORM TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN JAY COUNTY COULD EXCEED AN INCH BEFORE RAIN
TAPERS IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PONDING OF
WATER IS POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS ACROSS FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST JAY
COUNTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL MODEST RAINFALL RATES
OF 0.25-0.4" PER HOUR SHOULD TEND TO DISCOURAGE SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO CONCERNS. MAIN TWEAK TO MORNING FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST
POPS UPWARD FAR SOUTH WITH AN INCREASE IN STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
BY IN LARGE THE AREA WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL OVER THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS JUST WEST OF THE REGION. BEFORE
WE GET THERE, A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SCENARIO TAKES PLACE AS AN AXIS
OF DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN IN ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED WAVE AND WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND RIDES
ALONG THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON TIMING,
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALREADY NOTED AS OF 6Z FROM SOUTH OF
LAFAYETTE TO MARYSVILLE, OH. SOME CAMS DO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT COULD
EDGE TO NEAR US-24 WARRANTING A CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT OF POPS FOR
THE TIME BEING. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, A "COOL" FRONT DROPS QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS MI/WI THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MI BORDER TOWARDS 00Z
THU AND THEN CONTINUING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
DROPS INTO NE PARTS OF THE AREA IF ANY LINGERING MOISTURE STILL
EXISTS. THINKING BEST (VERY LIMITED) CHANCES REMAIN JUST NE OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
80S WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, SAVE FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG/SOUTH OF US-24 WHERE THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE THE SOUTHERLY
SYSTEM MAY LIMIT WARMING SOMEWHAT. ON THU, SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 MB
TEMP AND MORE NOTICEABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS (DROPPING INTO THE 40S)
WILL BRING A VERY PLEASANT FEEL. ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN AWAY FROM ANY
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND, DISTURBANCES AND WEAK FRONTS WILL
HELP KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS HIGHS
IN THE 70S.
LAST, BUT NOT LEAST, WHILE THE OVERALL WIND AND WAVE FORECAST
WILL NOT POSE A CONCERN TO SMALL CRAFT BEHIND THE COOL FRONT
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN
INCREASING SWIM RISK AFTER 9Z THU THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z THU. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK RESIDES ALONG THE LA PORTE
COUNTY SHORE LINE AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BERRIEN
COUNTY SHORES. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT, BUT
IF TRENDS CONTINUE, HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR BEACH ZONES BY THE NEXT PACKAGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WAS SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS
CENTRAL IN AND MOVING ENE. WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY
MAKE IT TO KFWA, THE DURATION AND IMPACTS APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO
ADD TO THE TAF. WILL DEFER TO INCOMING SHIFT TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KSBN, VFR CONDITIONS HAVE WITH
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS INTO LOWER MI WHICH SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT IN DURATION AND REMAIN AWAY FROM KSBN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ103-203.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MARSILI
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER
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