265
FXUS63 KIWX 040535
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
135 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING WARMER INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S.
- CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTER THE FORECAST NORTH
OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
- BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (50-80%) AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- MAINLY DRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
AN EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD WILL SINK OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR STRETCH OF
PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WEEK WITH WARMER HIGHS INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH. A MORE DRAMATIC INCREASE IN
COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS DELAYED UNTIL LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS INCOMING HIGH THETA-E AIR IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEVERAL MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE AREA IN FLATTENED QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT COULD YIELD PERIODIC SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. THE
BULK OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO DRIER WX
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS LIKELY GETS SHUNTED JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE IWX CWA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHERN
INDIANA STILL BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH. AS WE HEAD
INTO THU AFTERNOON/EVENING, SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/MID LEVEL
WAVE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THU. MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS UP TO AROUND
15-20KTS AT TIMES (HIGHEST AT KSBN). OTHERWISE, EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER AROUND 25-30KFT (PER UPSTREAM OBS, SCT/BKN AT
TIMES).
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD
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