456
FXUS63 KIWX 061630
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1230 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASINGLY HUMID WITH 60-80% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ALONG
AND SOUTH OF US 30 TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE BETWEEN 3-9 PM EDT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS
THE MAIN THREATS.
- DAILY PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 60-80%
CHANCES.
- HOT AND HUMID, ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FIRST
90+ DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR LIKELY BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES THAT CLEARING IS ONGOING FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA AS OF MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
ROCKFORD, IL OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO GRAND HAVEN, MI. OUT AHEAD OF IT,
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOTED IN THE WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER
LA PORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AMIDST AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DISCRETE STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THAT REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY TODAY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS (3 PM EDT AND ONWARDS). CONCERNS YESTERDAY
AND OVERNIGHT WERE THAT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WOULD
DEPEND ON HOW THE MORNING EVOLVED. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS RECOVERED
FAVORABLY BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION WITH 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE
NOTED IN NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. 0- 6KM
SHEAR HAS INCREASED AS WELL TO AROUND 35-40 KTS. HOWEVER, IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER IN BOTH THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS AT ONLY AROUND 6-6.5 C/KM. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT INCREASED MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND INCREASED WAA DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S TODAY) TO SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE SBCAPE OF UP TO 3000
J/KG. NO TOWERING CUMULUS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE YET, BUT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80/I-90. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN
INDIANA, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 WHERE THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED. DESPITE LAPSE RATES NOT BEING AS
STEEP AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, SCATTERED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30
GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.5", EVEN SUB-SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS TODAY WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1"/HR.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
(MOST LIKELY THE US 24 CORRIDOR) OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
DURING THE DAYTIME, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CREEP BACK UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY DRY
TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE STATIONARY FRONT THEN IS PULLED NORTHWARD AS A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
STORMS AS HIGH AS 60-80% AREA-WIDE, MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.
IT WILL THEN BECOME HOT AND HUMID, ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS, SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE
ANTICIPATED. THE FIRST 90+ DEGREE DAY IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE AMPLITUDE AND CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THERE COULD BE DAILY PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT NBM
LOW CHANCES (20-40% EACH DAY) FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
INHERITED TAFS ARE OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE 18Z CYCLE. KSBN
CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF DAY; CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED -TSRA PRIOR TO 23Z, YET MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS DEVELOP SOUTH OF KSBN. THE PROB30 GROUP
CONTINUES AT KFWA AS THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THESE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, AT BOTH SITES, WIND IS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING TO OUR NORTH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page