839
FXUS63 KIWX 070840
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
20 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM NORTH JUDSON, IN TO PORTLAND, IN. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER WHITE COUNTY, IN. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 83-88 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 59 TO 69
DEGREES.
- NEARLY DAILY CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT)FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
(50-90 PERCENT). CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST WEST OF I 69 ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. ON TUESDAY, THE BEST CHANCES
ARE EAST OF US 31. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S, NEARING
90 DEG MONDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 88-96 DEGREES
DURING PEAK HEATING.
- HOT AND HUMID, ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S, LOW-MID 90S. LOWS IN THE 60S,
LOW-MID 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
AS OF THIS WRITING, THERE WERE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FROM NORTH JUDSON, IN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO GRANT COUNTY, IN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO NEAR LIMA, OH AND BERNE, IN. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON AND OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE STALLED COLD FRONT (EVENTUALLY DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON). THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVE POPS GENERALLY AT
20-60 PERCENT TODAY FOR THIS LOCATION (GREATEST CHANCES IN WHITE
COUNTY, IN).
OTHERWISE, OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST TRANSIENT PATCHY FOG, WITH A FEW
SITES DROPPING TO 1/2 TO 1SM BRIEFLY. KFWA JUST DROPPED TO 4-5SM FOR
AN HOUR, THEN RETURNED TO 10 MILES. OTHER SITES REPORTING VIS
REDUCTIONS ARE IN THE 2-5 MILE RANGE. IT'S POSSIBLE AS WE CONTINUE
TO RADIATE (WHERE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LESS OPAQUE) THAT MORE
SITES DROP DOWN THROUGH EARLY MORNING, WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES GIVEN IT SEEMS
PRETTY PATCHY AND SHORT-LIVED.
HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO AROUND 82-88 DEGREES, WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.
MONDAY WE'LL SEE A SHARP TROUGH MOVE THROUGH, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
(30-75 PERCENT) LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I 69 (ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MI) IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FORCES OUR BOUNDARY NORTH MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY,
WHICH HEADS EASTWARD INTO OHIO TUE PM INTO WED AM. THIS TAKES OUR
POPS/STORMS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF US 31, HIGHEST CHANCES
FURTHER EAST. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE 84-90 DEGREES,
WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 88 TO 96 DEGREES AT PEAK HEATING.
AFTER THAT WAVE EXITS, OUR AREA RESTS AT THE PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
HIGH BROADLY PARKED OVER THE SE CONUS. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH
MOVES GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, PARTICULARLY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
(AND SFC COLD FRONT) ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
THROUGH ONTARIO APPROACHES FROM THE WEST (BY FRIDAY MORNING). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WED/THU RANGE FROM 88 TO 92 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 95-102 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE
FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH BRINGS US
20- 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WED AND 30-54 PERCENT
ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S, LOW TO MID 70S.
HEADLINES FOR EXTREME HEAT MAY BE NEEDED ON WED/THU.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE COOL DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS 82-88
DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES ONLY IN THE 85-92 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. THE COLD FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST, AND A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. CHANCES ON THURSDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM 50-70 PERCENT, AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEG ON SATURDAY AND
77 TO 82 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES (20-30 PERCENT)
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE SATURDAY ENDS
UP COMPLETELY DRY AND THE BETTER POTENTIAL MOVES IN TO THE WEST HALF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS PERIOD, WITH
MOST CONVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR SEEMS MORE LIKELY AT KFWA WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEARLY CALM WINDS, ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUD
COVER IS LIMITED TO SCATTERED WHERE WE CAN RADIATE A LITTLE BIT.
JUST NORTH KGWB IS REPORTING 1SM VISIBILITY, AND KSMD HAD A
BRIEF DIP TO 1/4SM BEFORE RETURNING TO 10SM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE DOES TANK KFWA TO 1/4-1/2SM VIS, BUT DIDN'T FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW YET. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NEEDED IN THE COMING HOURS IF TRENDS SEEM TO BE DIPPING BELOW
IFR.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...MCD
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