098
FXUS63 KIWX 071759
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES OF AROUND 60% MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY THEN AGAIN THURSDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FIRST 90+
DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR LIKELY BY LATE NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES
MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT HAS COMPLETELY CLEARED OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING WHITE COUNTY, IN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAIN LOW TODAY (20-30%) AS WE END UP ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. WITH A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA,
THE US 24 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH HAS THE BEST CHANCES, ALBEIT LOW, FOR
SEEING A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON MONDAY. A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. FIRST,
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP PULL THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK NORTH
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WAA STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING WARMTH, ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, AND ALLOWING FOR
THE BOUNDARY TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT.
IT WILL THEN BECOME HOT AND HUMID, ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US, AN EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US THIS WEEK. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO SOAR IN OUR FORECAST AREA. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE ANTICIPATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK OF THIS EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FIRST 90+ DEGREE DAY IS LIKELY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RISE STARTING EARLY THIS WEEK, HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PLEASE TAKE THE
HEAT SERIOUSLY AND TAKE STEPS TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESS!
DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, THERE COULD BE DAILY PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW, POPS RANGE FROM
20-60% EACH DAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE. SPC DID INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA IN THEIR DAY 5 SEVERE OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 11TH.
MODELS DIVERGE ON AN EXACT SOLUTION BUT A COLD FRONT COULD MOVE
THROUGH, CAUSING A SETUP WHERE SEVERE WEATHER WITH ALL HAZARDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. PATTERN RECOGNITION TELLS ME THAT THIS IS
OFTEN HOW WE BREAK OUR HOT AND HUMID PATTERNS DURING THE
SUMMERTIME EITHER WITH A COLD FRONT OR WITH STORMS THAT RIDE THE
EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.... STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR/DRY WITH EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY LIKELY REMAINS SOUTHWEST
OF THE TERMINALS NEAR A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS FRONT DOES LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO NORTHERN IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AND BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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