161
FXUS63 KIWX 200202
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1002 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY FOR OUR FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR BERRIEN COUNTY SOUTHEAST
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3"
ARE EXPECTED.
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
BROAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.
THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY
COMPACT UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
INSTABILITY IS ON THE MEAGER SIDE UPSTREAM ACROSS ILLINOIS, WITH
POCKET OF 500-1000 J/KG SFC BASED CAPES TIED MORE TO COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER VORT MAX. THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS
MN/WI SHOULD WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH JUST AN EXPECTATION
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH
SHORT TERM PROGS DEPICTING 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE, FEEL THAT
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS CAPTURED WELL AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE FIRST PERIOD
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
COOL WEATHER CONTINUES (HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S) WITH
A THICKENING CUMULUS DECK INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SKIRTS OUR
AREA TO THE NORTH INTO SATURDAY EARLY MORNING HOURS. PERIODIC
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE DUE TO A BROAD
LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA.
WE WILL SEE A SHORT BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND RIGHT NOW THERE IS QUESTION TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE CIRCULATION EXACTLY TRACKS. AS THE FURTHER NORTH THE
STORM TRACKS THE BETTER THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (PERHAPS
STRONG TO SEVERE) WOULD BE FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON CONSENSUS IS FOR A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WHICH
WOULD LOWER OUR CHANCES FOR THE STRONGER STORMS AND A BIT LESS
RAINFALL THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WITH THE CIRCULATION
DEFORMATION ZONE OVERHEAD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THREAT FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A MARGINAL THREAT JUST ON
THE FRINGE OF WHITE COUNTY. WPC ALSO HAS OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 3.
CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LOCATIONS HITTING THE 3 INCH MARK. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BUT AGAIN WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE EXACT TRACK AS
THAT WILL DICTATE IF WE SEE HIGHER/LOWER AMOUNTS.
ANOTHER BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE A BIT SPARSE RIGHT NOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT IN THE COMING DAYS WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA. THIS
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER SYSTEM TO WATCH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS EVENING SITUATED BETWEEN EXPANSIVE MISSOURI
VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY ANTICYCLONE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI
WILL DROP EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK WESTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST.
FORCING FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-200
J/KG COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW
INDIANA EARLY OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. DID MENTION TEMPO/PROB30 SHOWER AT
KSBN/KFWA RESPECTIVELY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SHORT WAVE AND WEAK RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH GETS REINFORCED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE STEEP
ENOUGH LOW LAPSE RATES FOR WESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MARSILI
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...MARSILI
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