655
FXUS63 KIWX 051040
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
640 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. SLOW MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- CONDITIONS DRY OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, WHICH HAS LIKELY
BEEN CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OVER PAST 24 HOURS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. 00Z RAOBS FROM LAST EVENING ALSO DEPICTED A WEAK MID
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
EJECT NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL IN/NORTHWEST OH THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS
ALLOWED FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE TOLL ROAD ALONG AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WITH THE NE IL VORT MAX. THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE NE IL FEATURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND ACT TO ENHANCE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD. GIVEN WEAK STEERING
FLOW AND GOOD DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE, THE CONCERN PERSISTS THIS
MORNING FOR A FEW POCKETS OF 2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES COULD OCCUR IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME AS 925-850MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A
PAIR OF SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES GRADUALLY PHASE WITH
THE PRE-EXISTING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORT WAVE. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MATURATION OF LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF
THESE PHASED SYSTEMS WITH WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SINKING SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT TAKING SFC BOUNDARY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE TODAY WITH MLCAPES MORE MODERATE TODAY IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. FLOW MAGNITUDES IN THE 850-300MB LAYER
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND A POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LATER TODAY GIVEN PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE EAST OF WEAK
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW PRECIP LOADED CORES COULD PRODUCE SOME 40 MPH
WIND GUSTS.
A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SIDE NOTE TODAY COULD BE POTENTIAL
OF SOME NON-SUPERCELL CIRCULATION FORMATION GIVEN THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SETUP. DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW FEATURE WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AXIS OF HIGHER SFC/LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY EXTENDING EASTWARD. SOME MODEST 100-250 J/KG CAPE IN
THE 0-3KM LAYER SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED EAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL VORTICITY, LOW LEVEL
CAPE, AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD YIELD AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF
FUNNEL CLOUD/WEAK LANDSPOUT POTENTIAL. THIS IS OF VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE AND WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER/LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND WHETHER STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
MATERIALIZE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE SETUP TODAY DOES NOT FAVOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
CONCERN.
SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING, PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. WANING
INSTABILITY AND GRADUAL SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE OLD
REMNANT MCV FEATURE SHOULD REDUCE RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT.
FOR MONDAY AN ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ACQUIRE
MORE OF A CUT-OFF CHARACTERISTIC WITH EXPECTATION THAT INVERTED
SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK ACROSS NE IN/NW OH ON MONDAY IN
THIS SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN. LOW CHANCE POPS WHERE MAINTAINED
SOUTHEAST HALF MONDAY TO COVER THIS, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST.
THIS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS TO BEGIN THE WEEK.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. A SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES WILL DAMPEN THIS RIDGE AND
ALLOW FOR QUICK RETURN OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY
LATE THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN LATE WED INTO THU. WESTERLY FLOW PROFILES
WILL INCREASE SOME AS THIS RIDGE DAMPENS, BUT STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WILL MAKE
IT. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE MAY TRY
TO REBUILD TOWARD END OF THE PERIOD, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL NW
WAVES POSSIBLE BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN STRENGTHENED BY
CONVECTION OVER PAST 24 HOURS WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD TODAY
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE SOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
FEATURE THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH HAS
AUGMENTED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS WEAK SFC REFLECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE IN KFWA VICINITY WHERE MLCAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OR JUST EAST OF SFC
REFLECTION. OTHERWISE TODAY, SOUTHWARD SAGGING SFC BOUNDARY HAS
PROMOTED SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH A POTENTIAL OF BRIEF IFR CIGS AT KFWA TO START THE PERIOD.
CIGS SHOULD TREND MVFR AT KSBN LATER THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KFWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE
SUSTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KFWA BY THIS EVENING AS
SFC REFLECTION BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHEAST.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI
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