227
FXUS63 KIWX 051700
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
100 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (40-60%) WILL IMPACT SOME AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE
MAIN CONCERN. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF I-69 OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE
24 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.
- DRIER AND SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
NEAR TERM FOCUS REMAINS ON A COMBINATION OF A DEPARTING MCV AND
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. AN AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF US 30. THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AIDED BY MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
HOWEVER, A WEAK FLOW AND VERY LIMITED SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE SEVERE THREAT, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING HEAVY RAIN AS
WARM LAYER PUSHES OVER 14,000 FT AND PWATS OF 1.8 TO 2" ARE IN
PLACE. NO PLANS FOR ANY SORT OF WATCH, BUT SHORT FUSE FLOOD
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WHERE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE OCCURRED
IN RECENT DAYS OR WHERE TRAINING CELLS IMPACT A GIVEN AREA.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT MANY MODELS KEEP AT LEAST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND, ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN AREAS AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BY MORNING IT
SHOULD BISECT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME HINTS OF RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING. WHILE CURRENT POPS MAY BE TOO FAR NW, HAVE
LEFT IN PLACE FOR NOW. ANY PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY SUNSET MONDAY
IF NOT BEFORE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A FEW DAYS, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO LOWER
SOMEWHAT (60S VS 70S) AND ENDING PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT
AND MORESO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE IN AS
A SEMI ZONAL FLOW SETS UP. POSITIONING OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND
INFLUENCES OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO BRING
MUCH DETAIL TO THE LATER PERIODS SO BLEND OF MODELS LEFT IN PLACE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN STRENGTHENED BY
CONVECTION OVER PAST 24 HOURS WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD TODAY
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE SOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
FEATURE THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH HAS
AUGMENTED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM, THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS WEAK SFC REFLECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE IN KFWA VICINITY WHERE MLCAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OR JUST EAST OF SFC
REFLECTION. OTHERWISE TODAY, SOUTHWARD SAGGING SFC BOUNDARY HAS
PROMOTED SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH A POTENTIAL OF BRIEF IFR CIGS AT KFWA TO START THE PERIOD.
CIGS SHOULD TREND MVFR AT KSBN LATER THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KFWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE
SUSTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KFWA BY THIS EVENING AS
SFC REFLECTION BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHEAST.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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