185
FXUS63 KIWX 161804
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
204 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY.
THE THREAT FOR HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- HAZY TO SMOKY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRE SMOKE.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
BIT OF BAD NEWS IN THE FORECASTER REALM AS THE NOAA GOES EAST,
GOES-19 SATELLITE HAS HAD AN UNEXPECTED OUTAGE AND CURRENTLY
REMAINS DOWN LEAVING US A BIT BLIND RIGHT NOW WITH NO IMAGERY
DATA SINCE AROUND 22Z YESTERDAY. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY NOT GOOD
ESPECIALLY WITH HURRICANE SEASON UPON US AND HOPEFULLY THE
ENGINEERS CAN GET IT BACK UP AND RUNNING. IN THE SHORTER TERM
THIS HAS HAMPERED OUR OBSERVATIONS OF THE CANADIAN SMOKE THAT
HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO LOOK SMOKEY AND HAZY TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT
IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND DUE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DID ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
US-30 TODAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH
AND THE UPPER LEVEL SMOKINESS THAT LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN OTHERWISE WITH THE DECREASE IN
SOLAR INSOLATION.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WE WILL SEE SHORTWAVES TRANSITING
EASTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WITH ONE LATER TODAY
JUST SKIRTING TO OUR SOUTH OF OUR AREA BUT COULD CAUSE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO COME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH EACH DAY
WITH MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE AREA. THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIODS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOWS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREATS. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BACK
BELOW 70 FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGING MAKES ANOTHER SLIGHT PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
BEFORE LONGWAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY AND INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BRINGING A BETTER
REPRIEVE TO THE HEAT LATELY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY AT KSBN WHICH HAS
TRANSITIONED TO IFR VSBYS IN SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS IS ON THE LOW SIDE, ALTHOUGH
CONCERN THAT IS THAT AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KSBN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO MVFR, BUT
WOULD EXPECT SOME EARLY MORNING FRIDAY DETERIORATION WITH
SMOKE/BR COMBINATION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL ALLOW A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL/WEST
CENTRAL IN TO RETREAT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD TEND TO HELP IMPROVE SFC VSBYS TOWARD END OF
THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD, BUT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RISK
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-022>027-032>034-104-116-
204-216.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ013-015-020-
022>027-032>034.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ020.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INZ103-
203.
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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