596
FXUS63 KIWX 270500
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
100 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- HOT ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA.
- DANGEROUS WAVES AND CURRENTS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AT SOUTHEAST
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON NOW THAT MORNING STRATUS HAS MIXED
OUT; MORE HUMID AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-70S. ALL EYES ON
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
UNDERWAY IN EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS TO BE EXPECTED, CAMS
THIS MORNING HAVE VARIED WILDLY RUN-TO-RUN REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF UPSTREAM STORMS THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GENERAL CONCENSUS
IS THAT EMBEDDED MID-AND-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH ENERGETIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SPARK AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. STORMS THEN SPILL
SSE ATOP A STRONG RIDGE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS TRACK
GENERALLY KEEPS THE MOST ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS OVER WISCONSIN AND
ILLINOIS TONIGHT, BUT THERE ARE INTERMITTENT RUNS THAT SEND A
DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL MICHIGAN.
WITH FADING INSTABILITY TONIGHT, WANING BULK SHEAR VALUES, LAGGING
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, AND A WEAKENING RISE/FALL COUPLET ON PRESSURE-
CHANGE PLOTS, THERE IS MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSTREAM ACTIVITY
WEAKENS AS IT PERHAPS LIMPS INTO TO THE WESTERN- THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTERNATIVELY, IT COULD BE DRY ALL
NIGHT GIVEN THE BEST FORCING IS WELL NORTH. ALSO UNCERTAIN IS
WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS CAN QUICKLY DEVELOP
TONIGHT OVER WI, DRIFTING IN LOCALLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. SOME
CAMS HAVE THESE TWO COMPLEXES COMICALLY CLOSE TO ONE OTHER,
RAISING SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD RECOVER. WE'LL RETAIN SOME POPS MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY.
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT IS OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AN APPROACHING 50-60 KNOT 500-MB JET DIVES IN BY LATE AFTERNOON,
LIKELY SPARKING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI OR CENTRAL MI WHICH
ORGANIZE AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE, INCLUDING ENHANCED AREAS OF SRH,
INTRODUCING A CHANCE FOR EMBEDDED TORNADOES. ANY MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT HOW THE AFTERNOON EVOLVES, BUT THE
CURRENT TIMING OF 2PM TO 2AM MONDAY APPEARS ON TRACK. HOT ON
MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 90, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTHERN IN. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES WILL APPROACH 100
DEGREES, BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD DEBRIS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN ANY HEAT- RELATED HEADLINES.
NOT AS HOT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
SOFTENS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, INTRODUCING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS ACTIVITY UPSTREAM REMAINS SLOW TO GET GOING OVERNIGHT. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH AND MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED PROB30
GROUPS FOR KSBN AND KFWA FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE
TO SCATTERED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL BUT
WILL DEFER THIS TO LATER TAF UPDATES UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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