523
FXUS63 KIWX 291722
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES WITH HIGH WAVES AND CURRENTS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS INCREASE TO 40-60% LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
DRY CONDITIONS, LOW HUMIDITY, SUNSHINE, AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN MAY NOT EVEN GET
OUT OF THE MID 70S TODAY. SEVERAL MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MIDWEEK. EXPECT HIGHS TO GRADUALLY WARM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES.
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LA PORTE COUNTY, IN AND
BERRIEN COUNTY, MI THROUGH DAYBREAK. BUOYS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
SHORELINE SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET CURRENTLY. A DOWNWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH WAVES DIMINISHING TO 2 TO
3 FEET. HEED WARNINGS FROM LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH FLAGS!
IT WILL BE DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY; AN
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES (40-60%) FOR RAIN/STORMS RETURNING TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS IN THE LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THIS INCOMING SYSTEM MAY STALL FOR A FEW DAYS TO OUR SOUTH. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, BECOMING CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN JET STREAM. BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY, HAVE RETAINED NBM
POPS WHICH FEATURE INTERMITTENT LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO REMAIN AROUND THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THIS ALLOWS FOR LIGHT (10 KTS SUSTAINED OR BELOW)
NORTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ROLLER
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