230
FXUS63 KIWX 021831
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
231 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
ALONG THE LA PORTE COUNTY, IN AND BERRIEN COUNTY, MI
SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFE-THREATENING WAVES AND CURRENTS
ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.FOR DETAILS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATLAKES/BEACHHAZARDS
- PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
- CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN OVER PAST FEW
DAYS WILL BECOME INCREASING SHEARED IN NATURE INTO THIS EVENING
AND WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. WEAKENING NATURE OF THIS TROUGH
HAS LEFT AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS FAR NE
IN/NW OH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING. BETTER DEEP COLUMN
MOISTURE AXIS IS BEGINNING TO EXIT THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECTING THESE DEFORMATION-FORCED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED AND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NE IN/NW OH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
AN UPPER SPEED MAX DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH. WITH LESSENING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT BEFORE
DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
AN OVERALL QUIET PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL ALLOW AN EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO OVERSPREAD
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN A STRONGER WARM/MOIST
LOW LEVEL ADVECTION PUSH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
LOCAL AREA MAY BE LOCATED ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES, AND POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING TIMING LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE THREAT. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ON
THURSDAY, BUT STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DEPENDING ON
EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION LATE WED NIGHT/THU AM.
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FAVOR A WAVERING BAROCLINIC ZONE
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE WAVES TO AFFECT AREA IN WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PREDICTABILITY IS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
12- HOUR POPS IN THIS PATTERN, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT LONGWAVE RIDGING MAY AMPLIFY ACROSS CENTRAL
CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE MAIN AREA OF VORTICITY ALLOWING THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ENTERS THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO ENTER THE AREA AND SO A
MODERATION BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THE START
OF THE PERIOD AT FWA. SBN IS ALREADY THERE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHTER AND OUT OF THE EAST FOR
MONDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ277.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ177.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...ROLLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page