318
FXUS63 KIWX 270550
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT).
- BECOMING WARMER AND MORE HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON NEAR TERM AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A
SFC FRONT. A STRONGER STORM DEVELOPED OVER LK MI AND HAS BEEN MOVING
ACROSS VAN BUREN INTO KALAMAZOO COUNTIES IN MI. SOME ATTEMPT AT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SW IS NOTED, BUT THEY ARE STRUGGLING DUE TO A
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH A MODEST,
YET MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT SHEAR PROFILE TO ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN
INTENSITY WITH TIME. WITH THE BEST LIFT REMAINING NORTH, CELLS WILL
TEND TO GROW RATHER QUICKLY, BUT THEN STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM OR OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. BEST WINDOW
STILL APPEARS TO BE 19-20Z TO MAYBE AS LATE AS 2Z. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (FREEZING LEVELS RATHER HIGH TODAY)
AND A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IN THE EARLY
STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT. SWODY1 SLIGHT RISK WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. FLOODING CONCERNS APPEAR VERY LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED
COVERAGE AND DURATION.
ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL STILL
EXIST MAINLY ACROSS SE SECTIONS TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR STORM IN THE 20-24Z THU TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE WITH SILENT 14
POPS IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A CHANGE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO MORE OF A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP AS ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH DIGS IN THE PACIFIC NW. AS A RESULT, DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, LOWS
IN THE 60S AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, BUT TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE
AFORMENTIONED TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MONDAY, BUT
THEN BE SHUNTED NE AS A 595 DM HIGH ACROSS THE SE U.S EDGES NORTH.
MODEL BLEND CONTINUES TO THROW IN SOME TOKEN SLGT CHC POPS AS IT
STRUGGLES WITH WAVES THAT PASS NEARBY, BUT LIKELY CAUSE NO REAL
IMPACT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING
HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE MOST PREVALENT FOR AREAS WHICH RECEIVED MEASURABLE
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
MOST LIKELY ACROSS KFWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH AT
LEAST A POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS NE INDIANA IN
THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. WITH THE 06Z TAFS HAVE TRENDED KFWA TO
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KSBN GIVEN MORE LIMITED RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS AND WHERE HYDROLAPSE PROFILES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
FAVORABLE GIVEN POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, ALTHOUGH VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. A SECONDARY LOW
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND
POTENTIAL WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE MUCH TOO
LIMITED FOR ANY TAF INCLUSION GIVEN WEAKLY FORCED NATURE.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page