888
FXUS63 KIWX 271725
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
125 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE (10-15%) OF A SHOWER.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THEN
WARMING AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
A ROGUE SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET AS ONE MORE WEAK
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MUCAPE) AND LITTLE OVERALL
SHEAR.
OTHERWISE, AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE EXISTING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ON THIS
OCCURRING. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AND TRANSITION
MORE SW TO NE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MORE WEST TO EAST AS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION, THIS STILL LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO WEAK WAVES THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW
WILL RESIDE FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO SUNDAY TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES WEST
OF THE AREA WITH MAYBE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE WORK WEEK. FORECAST WILL REMAIN RIDDLED
WITH PERIODS OF SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO HANDLE EACH OF THE WAVES.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A LOW SCT-BKN VFR CU FIELD AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A LATE
DAY SHOWER, THOUGH POINT CHANCES (<10%) REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THEN INTO TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW BR/FG AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
TOMORROW OTHERWISE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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