718
FXUS63 KIWX 281720
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
120 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY AND TRENDING WARMER THIS WEEKEND.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MANY.
- A PRIMARILY DRY PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
QUIET, PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OR FORCING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST IN THIS REGIME OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
LIKELY TRACK EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES, ONE LATE TONIGHT, AND
THEN ANOTHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ AND DEVELOPING MUCAPE AXIS LIKELY REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LOCALLY BEING
AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EACH PASSING WAVE.
WITH THAT SAID, CANNOT RULE OUT DECAYING ELEVATED SHOWERS
SURVIVING INTO NORTHERN ZONES AT SOME POINT SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING.
BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THEN BECOMES THE STORY NEXT WEEK, AT
LEAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS A ~595 DM UPPER RIDGE AT 500 MB
FLEXES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO REACH WELL INTO THE
90S EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE RIDGE TOPPING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS IS LESS LIKELY TO
SPILL OVER. WARM MID LEVEL PROFILES SHOULD PUT A LID ON ANY SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION FOR THE BULK OF THESE PERIODS, THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OR ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE US 30
CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS THEN
DIVERGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ON WHETHER THE RIDGING
BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER INTO OR
THROUGH THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY, SHALLOW,
BR FORMATION AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE
AND POINT CHANCES FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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