658
FXUS63 KIWX 291746
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MANY. HEAT INDICES
MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IA MOVED
EAST AND HAS BEEN FALLING APART AS IT BECOMES ORPHANED FROM THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW (850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES).
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING BEHIND IT, GENERALLY
DRIFTING IN A SE DIRECTION. OVER TIME CAMS SHOW THIS AREA
WEAKENING AS THE LLJ RELAXES SOME AND WAVE DEPARTS. THE SAME
CAMS SEEM TO SUGGEST NEW DEVELOP NOT IN IA BUT CLOSER TO THE
AREA (EASTERN IL/SW MI/NW IN) LATER TONIGHT AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO
SHIFT SOMEWHAT AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF A
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE FLUX. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
THEREAFTER OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DICTATED BY THE POSITION OF
THE EDGE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH. SADLY,
MUCH LIKE PAST WEEKS WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
RIDGE WHICH COULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID
TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRIES TO EDGE IN BUT IS
LIKELY DEFLECTED NE. ONE DIFFERENCE THIS TIME AROUND MAY BE THE
AXIS OF BEST PRECIP ENDS UP NORTH AND WE END UP ON THE WARMER
AND MORE HUMID SIDE, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNALS
POINT TOWARDS HIGHS QUITE LIKELY AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. SOMETHING
TO KEEP IN THE BACK OF YOUR MIND AND MONITOR FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EXISTS AT KSBN, BUT NOT WORTH ANY MENTION OTHER THAN HERE.
OTHERWISE LITTLE MORE THAN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER
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