177
FXUS63 KIWX 070649
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
249 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-80S TODAY AND TRENDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A 40% TO 60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES PROVIDES A TRANQUIL LABOR
DAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING IN FROM CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IN THE
MIDWEST, HOWEVER. THIS ACTIVITY IS ON THE DECLINE, SO, GENERALLY
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY. OUR PESKY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, NOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN, WILL EXERT A HINT OF INFLUENCE OVERHEAD
TODAY AS TEMPERATURES CREEP UP A TOUCH WARMER THAN SUNDAY; HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-80S. THE RIDGE TRACKS EAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT FLATTENS THROUGH TIME AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
MANITOBA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
40-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MARGINAL SUPPORT FOR ISOALTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, WHILE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ARE BOTH ACCEPTABLE FOR EARLY AUTUMN. STRAY SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE LATITUDINAL ORIENTATION OF THE
OCCLUDING FRONT ATOP SOUTHEAST US HIGH PRESSURE.
WHILE WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, CLOUD COVER
PERMITTING (UPPER-80S), HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY USHERS IN UPPER-70S ONCE AGAIN. IN THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER-
AIR PATTERN THE FOLLOWS, ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER LAKE HURON, TAFS CARRY ON
LARGELY UNCHANGED. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY STRATUS
OFF LAKE ERIE THAT MAY ATTEMPT TO SEEP INTO KFWA NEAR DAYBREAK.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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