851
FXUS63 KIWX 081617
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S.
- THERE IS A 40% TO 60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT SOUTHEAST LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER PA,
WHILE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE FILTERING IN FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
AFORMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH 500-MB HEIGHT INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW-AND-MID 80S, WHILE
DEW POINTS CREEP INTO THE 70S; ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WRAPS UP OVER INTERIOR
ONTARIO AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BY SUNRISE, THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES AS WELL, THROUGH PRECEDING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MAY
ERODE SOME OF THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING RAINFALL. WE REMAIN UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AS BUBBLING AFTERNOON HEAT AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR WILL ACCOMMODATE
THUNDERSTORMS, YET UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL REMOVED TO THE
NORTH AND IMPROVING SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE BEST INSTABILITY.
CERTAINLY NOT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GAIN ELEVATION DUE TO INCREDIBLY SMALL
LAPSE RATES.
ADDITIONALLY, FOR WEDNESDAY, DEPENDING ON THE EXTEND OF
MORNING CLOUD COVER ALONG THE INCOMING FRONT, THERE OUGHT TO BE A
FAIRLY NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WHERE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY CREEP TOWARD 90S, YET NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LOW-80S. THE EXISTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON THE
HOT-SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AFORMENTIONED
CLOUD COVER.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT DRYING OUT
OTHERWISE AND NOT AS HOT FOR THE AFTERNOON. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, SUPPRESSING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH, AND PAVING THE WAY FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) LATER IN THE COMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-10 KTS
TODAY, HIGHEST THIS EVENING WHEN THEY BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT KFWA). SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD
ARRIVE AROUND 12Z IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT MOVES IN. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO KSBN
WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITHIN ANY STORMS. KEPT KFWA COMPLETELY DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RAIN/STORMS LIKELY DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON THERE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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