652
FXUS63 KIWX 231714
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
114 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTENDED STRETCH OF SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
BETWEEN EARLY AND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
- SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE (20-40%)
MAINLY SOUTH OF US-24 TODAY.
- DRY THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN
LA PORTE COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
AS THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTHS BELOW 700 MB FINALLY
DRY OUT BELOW 850 MB AFTER 21Z. THIS IS AS DRY AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD
EFFECTIVELY REMOVING DRIZZLE CHANCES AND ALLOWING OVERCAST TO BREAK
UP. THIS ALSO HELPS GUSTS TO RELAX FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 850
MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS INTO
THE LOW TEENS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING, BUT MIXING HEIGHTS
STRUGGLE TO REACH 850 MB UNTIL THURSDAY SO UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS
AROUND 70 DEGREE HIGHS STILL LOOK LIKELY. THIS FIGHT BETWEEN
LAPSE RATES, 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS, AND TIMES OF NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME, OUR UPPER LOW SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND A REX BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, EFFECTIVELY DIRECTING UPPER FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND KEEPING THE AREA IN MID LEVEL RIDGING AT
LEAST UNTIL WE GET TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT OUR HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE BOTH TOO WARM
AND WE MAINTAIN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 THEN, THEREFORE
WAITING UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY FOR GETTING SECURELY BACK
INTO THE 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
STRATUS PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT ARE
NOTED BOTH IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE. CEILINGS HAVE
STEADILY RISEN AT SOME STATIONS TO HIGH-END MVFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. TIMING FOR WHEN THIS
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS IS LOW. SOME DEGREE OF BKN TO OVC SKIES
PERSISTS OVERNIGHT, BUT MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILINGS
OWING TO FAVORABLE MODEL AGREEMENT AND THE AFORMENTIONED TRENDS.
WITH KSBN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW,
BETTER CHANCE OF SCT TO FEW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHILE BKN
SKIES LINGER AT KFWA. DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL, WITH VERY WEAK FORCING NOTED OVERNIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...BROWN
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