441
FXUS63 KIWX 100522
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 WHERE UP TO A HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, THEN
TURNING COLDER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND BRIEF SHOT OF ELEVATED WAA MAY BRING A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO NW IN AND SRN MI THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS LIFT NORTH INTO THE WESTERN TN
VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER DAY OTHERWISE ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO NEAR 80F.
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THEN TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
JOG THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SPOKE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE ON ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NBM AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE 50-80% PROBS FOR RAINFALL
TOTALS UP TO NEAR A HALF INCH IN NORTHWEST OH, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LIMA AREA. QPF AND POPS DO DROP OFF ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
69 CORRIDOR WITH A SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE RAIN POSSIBLE IN NW IN AND
SW MI. NO HAZARDOUS WX ANTICIPATED REGARDLESS WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
LIKELY KEEPING SUNDAY'S HIGHS COOLER (MID 60S TO LOW 70S).
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEIGHT RISES AND WARMER LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL MAKE MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. A WEAK COOL FRONT LIKELY DROPS
THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND A LOW CHANCE (20-40%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS. THE
PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODIC RAIN/THUNDER
CHANCES. THE PHASING OF INCOMING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH AND POTENTIAL STRONG SFC
REFLECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. THIS
LIKELY DRIVES A STRONG FALL COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH
COOL/BLUSTERY AIR FILTERING IN SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
(ESPECIALLY AT KFWA) THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS LIFT NORTHWARD BUT RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL HOLD
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST WINDOW. RAIN AND MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT KFWA JUST AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. KSBN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY/VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD
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