304
FXUS63 KIWX 110524
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
124 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 69 LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- WARM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
- LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WEAKENING DEFORMATION RAIN SHIELD REMAINS ON TRACK TO CLIP AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR LATER THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY INTO THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE IN NORTHWEST OH, WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MAKING THE MORE EASTERLY TURN INTO EASTERN
KY. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN FALL OFF INTO NORTHWEST IN AND
SOUTHWEST MI AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A RATHER SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE
PRECIP SHIELD. FORCING AND THE PRIMARY MOISTURE AXIS EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON. SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE MAY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET WELL INTO THE 70S IN OUR WESTERN ZONES, WHILE
CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE EAST WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S.
RIDGING THROUGH THE COLUMN SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
AND DIMINISHING WINDS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
MONDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ON MONDAY, LIKELY PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO
THE 80S.
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, DROPPING A SLOWING COOL FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY AND
FORCING ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LOW (20-
30%) CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS, BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THERE REMAINS MODEL SPREAD ON
WHETHER A STRONGER PHASED SYSTEM COMES TOGETHER OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, OR JUST A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD BE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REGARDLESS LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN, AND A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES IN TIME FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT N/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND EXPECT CEILING HEIGHTS TO LOWER AT BOTH
TERMINALS BUT UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THIS IS TAKING SLIGHTLY
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. FOR KFWA, RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BUT LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS ARE
STILL LIKELY BY 09Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE 14-18Z.
KSBN WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS ROUGHLY
11-15Z BUT DECIDED TO HOLD VFR FOR NOW GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS. BOTH
TERMINALS CLEAR OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KFWA MONDAY MORNING BUT LIKELY JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST
WINDOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD
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