520
FXUS63 KIWX 111715
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
115 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
- LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN STATELINE MONDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES (40-70%) OF SHOWERS ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RIDGING THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE A TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NE IN AND
NW OH WHERE LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP BELOW XOVER VALUES.
RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
RIDGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR BREEZY SSW WINDS AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE, MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN MODELED TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION AND SLIGHT GRAZE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT
SUPPORT RETAINING LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THE FAR NORTH DURING THIS TIME.
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF AN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER LOW
LIKELY ACTIVATES THE FRONT WITH INCREASING RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER
CHANCES. HIGHEST POPS (60-70%) FAVOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE US 30
CORRIDOR. COOLER, YET, STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OTHERWISE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHETHER A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN
RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL PHASING (OR NOT) OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF WINDS AND CAA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE STARTING TO DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST. KFWA IS STILL
REPORTING IFR CEILINGS, BUT VFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
RETURN TONIGHT AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY 00-03Z. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WITH MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE SURFACE ALONGSIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KFWA BUT I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE THE FOG IS. NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW 20-30% CHANCES FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 2
MILES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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