610
FXUS63 KIWX 220554
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
154 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24.
- TRANQUIL FALL WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND
SUNSHINE THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY AS A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WAS LARGELY UTILIZED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US EXTENDING
BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
A TRANQUIL WEEK IS AHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EACH DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS; WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OUT OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BUT FOR NOW CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (15-20%) AS IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURE
GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN BREAKS DOWN.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO ALONG AND SOUTH
OF US 24. LIGHT N/NE FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ADVECTION FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOW 40S TONIGHT. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT, THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR
DENSE FOG WILL BE BETWEEN 3 AM TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY, WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AROUND DAYBREAK. A SPS OR DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON TRENDS AND WHERE ANY FOG
DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THE 06Z TAFS WITH MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUED ON PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHEAST INDIANA. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED A BIT
SOUTHWEST OVER TIME LEADING TO A WEAK NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE FLOW TRAJECTORIES MAY
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AT KFWA AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST. WHILE DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE TRENDED TAFS TO A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS FROM 09Z-13Z WITH A MORE FOCUSED PERIOD OF
IFR VSBYS AT KFWA. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MORE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO TONIGHT LEADING TO
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TOWARD END OF THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD. THIS EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY
CAUSE FOG TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT, AND WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE
12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MARSILI
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