393
FXUS63 KIWX 240532
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM NORTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 69.
- TRANQUIL FALL WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND SUNSHINE.
- NO RAIN CHANCES UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
A LARGELY STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CALLED AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL ALLOW
FOR MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS THIS MORNING; AS THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY CONTINUES
TO AMPLIFY IN THE COMING DAYS, IT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. SINKING AIR UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESULT OUR PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, MILD
TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
EACH DAY. WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS AHEAD BY THE END OF THE MONTH
INTO EARLY NOVEMBER. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST, HOWEVER, A FLIP TO MORE ACTIVE, WETTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN LOCKED IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME PATCHY
DENSE ADVECTION FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES FOR FOG WILL LIKELY BE NORTHEAST OF FORT WAYNE, IN AS THIS
IS WHERE THE SMALLEST DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
FOR FOG TO FORM. MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, THE BEST TIMEFRAME
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE BETWEEN 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY, WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AROUND DAYBREAK. A SPS OR DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON TRENDS AND WHERE ANY FOG
DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR A REPEAT FOG
POTENTIAL SETUP THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATUS AND
DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO, WITH A WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF 15
TO 20 MPH. THIS FOG HAS BEEN FAVORED IN A PATTERN WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A WEAK EASTERLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN DENSE FOG POTENTIAL
AT KFWA FROM ROUGHLY 0730Z TO POSSIBLY MID MORNING. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY DEALS WITH WESTWARD EXTENT OF DENSE FOG WITH SOME
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POCKETS OF DENSE FOG AS FAR WEST
AS KSBN. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, DID LIMIT MENTION TO MVFR VSBYS
TREND BY 10Z AT KSBN WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS. IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW AT KFWA GIVEN VERY POOR MIXING
CONTINUING. OTHERWISE, QUIET AVIATION WEATHER TODAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT, ALLOWING FOR
EVENTUAL VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS
PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT FOG
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MARSILI
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