433
FXUS63 KIWX 241722
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL IMPACTS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
MORNING. AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- OTHERWISE, PLEASANT WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70, LOWS IN THE 40S, AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ANOTHER DAY WITH FOG AS THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN. LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW DENSE FOG RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS
OUR EASTERN CWA THANKS TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE ERIE AND PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE IN
PLACE EARLIER THANKS TO UPSTREAM TROUGH HAVE NOW LARGELY DISSIPATED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND SEE NO REASON WHY FOG WON'T CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY PLETHORA
OF LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH IT WILL
BUILD. WITH LIGHT E TO EVEN ESE FLOW, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A RAPID EXPANSION TO THE NW
BUT VERY LITTLE SOUTHWARD EXPANSION. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT
LEFT OFF THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR OBS AND EXPAND AS NECESSARY. SURFACE WINDS FINALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MORE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
(SAVE PERHAPS FOR OUR EXTREME NE AREAS WHERE LAKE ERIE COULD STILL
BE A FACTOR).
HIGHS TODAY A NEAR CARBON COPY FROM YESTERDAY GIVEN NO THERMAL
ADVECTION. HIGHS DO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES SUN AND MON AS VERY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW/MINOR WAA TAKES SHAPE. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THEN
BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN TO COOL EASTERLY FLOW FOR TUE BUT WAA
INCREASES AGAIN FOR WED AND THU AS A DECAYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND WASH OUT JUST TO OUR NW
WITH JUST SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEAR LAKE MI THU INTO
FRI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THERE IS STILL
A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD REGARDING EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ESSENTIALLY A BROKEN RECORD FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SEEING VFR
CONDITIONS AND THE ONLY SMALL WINDOW OF CHALLENGES FALLING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. KFWA REMAINS THE SITE TO WATCH
FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS CONCERNS. SIGNALS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS WITH SOME CHANCES FOR IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND
POSSIBLY CIGS 8 TO 14Z SUN. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO ADD A TEMPO
FOR 3/4SM BR AND LET LATER SHIFTS FINE TUNE THE FORECAST. ANY
FOG/STRATUS HAS NOT BEEN BURNING OFF TILL 16Z-ISH SO WILL LEAVE
THE 3SM BR RUN THROUGH 18Z ALTHOUGH IT MAY VERY WELL BE OVERKILL
IN THOSE LAST HOURS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER
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