866
FXUS63 KIWX 252329
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
729 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS AROUND 50.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED SOUTH, NOW OVER THE
DELMARVA, IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LOW EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS BISECTING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS
FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH TIME, STALLING OUT ATOP THE
AFORMENTIONED HIGH. THE RESULT IS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT, REDUCING THE OVERALL FOG RISK, YET CANNOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. AS NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED MONDAY EVENING, COOLER ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF US 30 IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT FRONT. THIS
NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY BRING A LAKE
ERIE MARINE LAYER WELL INLAND RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
WARMING BACK INTO THE MID-70S WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF
AND HIGH PRESSURE RESUMES ITS RELENTLESS GRIP OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS (HERE, NINE DAYS AND COUNTING RAIN-FREE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SOME FRACTURES IN THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
WITH ANOTHER FRONT ATTEMPTING TO MOVE TO THE MIDWEST. THE IN-
HOUSE BLEND THREATENS SOME 20% POPS OVER THE GREATER SOUTH BEND
AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, BUT THE MEAGER FORCING AND ABUNDANCE
OF PRECEDING DRY AIR LEAVES ME DOUBTFUL. INSTEAD, AS ADVERTISED
IN THIS SPACE THIS MORNING, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL RAIN IS NOT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS A
TROUGH LIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ADVERTISED 60%
POPS COULD BE A TOUCH HIGH AT THIS DISTANCE WITH GUIDANCE
THREATENING A BRIEF HIGH- OVER- LOW BLOCK OVER THE MIDWEST,
PASSING THE AFORMENTED TROUGH SOUTH. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
TRAJECTORIES ROTATED AROUND FROM OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL SEE A WESTERLY COMPONENT TAKE AFFECT TONIGHT. THIS
IS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD ALLOWING A COLD FRONT FRONT TO GET CLOSER TO THE AREA.
THIS SETUP PROVIDES LESS OF A CHANCE FOR FOG AREA-WIDE SO WILL KEEP
IT OUT OF THESE TAFS. THIS IS EVEN AS FWA SEES FAVORABLE CROSS-OVER
TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...ROLLER
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