214
FXUS63 KIWX 260531
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS AROUND 50.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
A WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS NOTED ON RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW CROSSING HUDSON BAY AND IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
AS THE PARENT FORCING ZIPS EAST AND STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED LOCALLY, JUST A STEADY
STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS GIVEN INCREDIBLY DRY AND STABLE LOW LEVELS.
OUR AREA DOES SEE A WIND SHIFT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO NNE AND
EVENTUALLY EAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG POTENTIAL GIVEN
RETURN OF LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION BUT AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT AS IS OCCURRING NOW. HIGHS TODAY STILL REACH LOW 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FLOW VEERS BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
BY TUE AFTERNOON SO HIGHS ON TUE ARE STILL AROUND 70 (SLIGHTLY
COOLER FAR NE).
S/SW FLOW AND WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU AS ANOTHER FRONT TAKE AIMS AT THE REGION. A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND A MUCH BETTER PREFRONTAL
LLJ/THETA-E SURGE SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THU. THE
TROUGH IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH THOUGH AND LOCAL AREAS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE. BEST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
IN OUR FAR NW THU AFTERNOON. LATEST NBM EVEN THROWS IN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IN OUR NW BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AND AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF US-24 LIKELY REMAIN DRY. HIGHS DO CLIMB NEAR 80 ON
THU, WHICH IS THE RECORD (SET IN 2024).
UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE AND BRING OUR
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN A WHILE. STILL A TON OF SPREAD REGARDING
THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION THOUGH. HALLOWEEN STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY
BUT NBM IS MAINTAINING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS
COULDN'T BE MUCH LOWER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
IS ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW IN NATURE AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN INDIANA, WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERN
PUSH LIMITED BY THE FACT THE FORCING WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL
ALREADY BE WANING LATER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LOSE ITS INTEGRITY TODAY BUT SHOULD PROVIDE A WEAK NORTHERLY SFC
WIND COMPONENT AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW ZONE OF POST-
FRONTAL MVFR LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, BUT THE
GREATER POTENTIAL OF THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
LOWER MI INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH FOG POTENTIAL LOOKING SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
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