760
FXUS64 KJAN 151121 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
521 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND INTO
THE 70S HOWEVER, AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST INTO OUR
AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, REINFORCING DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST, MOISTURE BEGINS TO RECOVER AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS REESTABLISHED. THIS, IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WILL SUPPORT INCREASED RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEVERITY APPEARS MARGINAL WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY AND MOST FORCING DEFLECTED NORTH. HOWEVER,
THERE COULD BE MINOR ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR FROM REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM SARA. A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT COULD
POTENTIALLY PROMOTE A LOW TORNADO THREAT. CONFIDENCE DOES SEEM A
BIT LOW AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, WITH SARA POTENTIALLY CHOKING OFF
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN. SHOULD TIMING OF THE FRONT BE SLOWED,
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A QUICK SPIN UP TUESDAY. THE
MOST ROBUST CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
IN ADDITION, TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OF
AROUND 8MB OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20MPH
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30MPH. PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OF 34 KTS OR
GREATER RANGE FROM 25% TO 75% ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GREATEST
PROBABILITIES IN THE DELTA. AS SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED MONDAY AND AN HWO GRAPHIC MAY BE INTRODUCED THIS WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT (THOUGH NOT AS TIGHT AS MONDAY) ON
THE EAST PERIPHERY OF A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. ALONG WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON, WITH HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FORCING A CANADIAN AIRMASS SOUTH
TOWARDS OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL AT THE VERY END OR BEYOND
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WE HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IT THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE. VEGETATION REMAINS VULNERABLE HAVING NOT YET HAD A
FREEZE. EVEN LOOKING BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND, THE COLD CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PERSIST INTO LATE MONTH./SAS/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF SHALLOW MVFR TO IFR VSBY (AT WORST LIFR AT
GLH) FROM FOG/BR REMAIN PSBL BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AFTER 15/13Z FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS,
GENERALLY UNDER 10MPH, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 44 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 68 42 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 70 43 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 73 45 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 70 46 74 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 65 41 69 49 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 68 43 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/DC
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