996
FXUS64 KJAN 152032
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
232 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO TRAVERSE
THE FORECAST AREA OVER TONIGHT BRINGING DOWN OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
THE LOW 40S. RESIDUAL SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LEFTOVER FROM
OUR PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ENABLE SOME PATCHY
FOG AND MIST DEVELOPMENT TO CONDENSE OUT, ESPECIALLY ALONG LOW LYING
AREAS. FOG/MIST IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND SHORT-LIVED AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, AND WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT WITH INSOLATION
AND GENERALIZED PBL MIXING.
AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OUT TO OUR EAST, WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON; REFLECTING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN
UNORTHODOX THERMAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA, WITH AREAS STILL UNDER
THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLDER
TEMPERATURES SEEING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S, AND THE REST OF
THE REGION RANGING FROM 50 IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO THE HIGH 50S
ALONG THE CONCORDIA/ADAMS AREA.
SYNOPTICALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BRING
ONE LAST BOUT OF BALMY WEATHER. AN UPSTREAM LOW THATS PROGGED TO
BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, SQUEEZES UP AGAINST THE HIGH
THAT IS SLOWLY EJECTING, PRODUCING A ROBUST THERMAL AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT COUPLED WITH A
STEEP THERMAL GRADIENT OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL FACILITATE THE
FORMATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE (~25%) OF ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS CARRYING IT THROUGH TO
TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE
PLEASANT IN THE 70S AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID
50S.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS TO TRANSIT FAR TO OUR NORTH, IT IS
PROJECTED TO DRAG A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORTUNATELY, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF DYNAMIC ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, JUST A HEFTY THERMAL GRADIENT; WHICH
WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. LOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO TREND IN THE MID 30S
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, BRINGING US EVER CLOSER TO
WINTERTIME WEATHER TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK./OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 44 74 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 42 72 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 43 74 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 45 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 46 74 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 41 69 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 43 72 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/MJH
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