917
FXUS64 KJAN 152336
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
536 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO TRAVERSE
THE FORECAST AREA OVER TONIGHT BRINGING DOWN OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
THE LOW 40S. RESIDUAL SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LEFTOVER FROM
OUR PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ENABLE SOME PATCHY
FOG AND MIST DEVELOPMENT TO CONDENSE OUT, ESPECIALLY ALONG LOW LYING
AREAS. FOG/MIST IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND SHORT-LIVED AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, AND WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT WITH INSOLATION
AND GENERALIZED PBL MIXING.
AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OUT TO OUR EAST, WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON; REFLECTING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN
UNORTHODOX THERMAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA, WITH AREAS STILL UNDER
THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLDER
TEMPERATURES SEEING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S, AND THE REST OF
THE REGION RANGING FROM 50 IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO THE HIGH 50S
ALONG THE CONCORDIA/ADAMS AREA.
SYNOPTICALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BRING
ONE LAST BOUT OF BALMY WEATHER. AN UPSTREAM LOW THATS PROGGED TO
BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, SQUEEZES UP AGAINST THE HIGH
THAT IS SLOWLY EJECTING, PRODUCING A ROBUST THERMAL AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT COUPLED WITH A
STEEP THERMAL GRADIENT OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL FACILITATE THE
FORMATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE (~25%) OF ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS CARRYING IT THROUGH TO
TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE
PLEASANT IN THE 70S AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID
50S.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS TO TRANSIT FAR TO OUR NORTH, IT IS
PROJECTED TO DRAG A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORTUNATELY, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF DYNAMIC ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, JUST A HEFTY THERMAL GRADIENT; WHICH
WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. LOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO TREND IN THE MID 30S
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, BRINGING US EVER CLOSER TO
WINTERTIME WEATHER TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK./OAJ/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WIND. PATCHY
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 44 74 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 42 73 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 43 74 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 45 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 46 75 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 41 70 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 43 72 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/EC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page