257
FXUS64 KJAN 160544
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1144 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
ALL IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS NEAR TERM EVENING UPDATE. HAVE
JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE/OBS TRENDS, AND THE COOLER
READINGS COULD SUPPORT A BIT MORE FOG. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO TRAVERSE
THE FORECAST AREA OVER TONIGHT BRINGING DOWN OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
THE LOW 40S. RESIDUAL SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LEFTOVER FROM
OUR PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ENABLE SOME PATCHY
FOG AND MIST DEVELOPMENT TO CONDENSE OUT, ESPECIALLY ALONG LOW LYING
AREAS. FOG/MIST IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND SHORT-LIVED AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, AND WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT WITH INSOLATION
AND GENERALIZED PBL MIXING.
AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OUT TO OUR EAST, WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON; REFLECTING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN
UNORTHODOX THERMAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA, WITH AREAS STILL UNDER
THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLDER
TEMPERATURES SEEING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S, AND THE REST OF
THE REGION RANGING FROM 50 IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO THE HIGH 50S
ALONG THE CONCORDIA/ADAMS AREA.
SYNOPTICALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BRING
ONE LAST BOUT OF BALMY WEATHER. AN UPSTREAM LOW THATS PROGGED TO
BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, SQUEEZES UP AGAINST THE HIGH
THAT IS SLOWLY EJECTING, PRODUCING A ROBUST THERMAL AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT COUPLED WITH A
STEEP THERMAL GRADIENT OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL FACILITATE THE
FORMATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE (~25%) OF ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS CARRYING IT THROUGH TO
TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE
PLEASANT IN THE 70S AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID
50S.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS TO TRANSIT FAR TO OUR NORTH, IT IS
PROJECTED TO DRAG A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORTUNATELY, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF DYNAMIC ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, JUST A HEFTY THERMAL GRADIENT; WHICH
WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. LOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO TREND IN THE MID 30S
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, BRINGING US EVER CLOSER TO
WINTERTIME WEATHER TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK./OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, BUT WIND AT SOME
SITES, NOTABLY JAN, GWO, AND GTR IS PREVENTING THE NECESSARY
TEMPERATURE DROPS TO ACHIEVE THIS. IF AND WHEN WINDS DIMINISH AT
THESE SITES SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, A WIND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 43 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 69 40 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 71 42 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 74 43 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 71 45 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 66 41 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 69 41 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/SAS20
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