102
FXUS64 KJAN 170615 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1215 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS A RIDGING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PATCHY, DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS SUNRISE FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.
PERSISTENT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER-LVL RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AN ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
IN SE AR AND NE LA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. /SW/
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: COME SUNDAY EVENING OUR CWA WILL
BE BETWEEN A 590DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND 554DAM CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL BE SUPPORTING A <1000MB SURFACE LOW OVER MEXICO
WHILE A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BACK
ACROSS OUR CWA BENEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BRING DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY WHILE THE CLOSED LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OUR PWATS REMAIN LESS THAN
ONE INCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY AFTERNOON A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL HELP DRAW NORTH TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF SARA IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN LIMITED INCLUDING MEAGER LAPSE RATES BUT WITH THE
ANTICIPATED MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILE COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT,
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE
MOST PART BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH IN OUR NORTHWEST TO GREATER THAN TWO
INCHES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. AS THE RAIN ENDS TUESDAY EVENING IN OUR
CWA, ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL BE DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO
HELP SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR ON THURSDAY
AS THE CLOSED LOW DROPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MORNING LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE
WILL BE LESS OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING UP TO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS THEREFORE LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL BUT A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
DECOUPLE THE WIND AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING. /22/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WERE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS TO THE WEST THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY EARLY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 3000FT WITH SOME SCATTERED STRATUS DECKS MOVING IN BELOW
THAT. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE DECKS CLOSELY TO ENSURE THAT
THEY DO NOT THICKEN INTO MORE PROBLEMATIC DECKS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOR AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST, WHICH
SHOULDN'T DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING THAT CAUSES CONCERN. ALTOGETHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 60 81 66 / 0 0 10 90
MERIDIAN 74 55 78 65 / 0 0 0 70
VICKSBURG 79 60 83 63 / 0 0 20 90
HATTIESBURG 80 59 82 69 / 0 0 10 70
NATCHEZ 80 63 82 65 / 0 0 20 90
GREENVILLE 76 60 80 60 / 20 0 20 90
GREENWOOD 76 58 80 63 / 10 0 10 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SW/22/OAJ
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