001
FXUS64 KJAN 171725 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1125 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 916 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
REST OF TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO, AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS, WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, WILL BRING IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES PEAK FROM THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WARM ADVECTION INCREASING FURTHER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA), SOME LIGHT "WARM ADVECTION" SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS GOOD SHAPE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SOME
HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, NO MAJOR
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY, THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. A STRONG JET STREAK
EXITING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE CUT OFF LOW HANGING
BACK AROUND SOUTH TEXAS HEADING INTO TOMORROW BEFORE IT LIFTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR AREA AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
CROSSING THE GULF AFTER THE DEMISE OF TROPICAL STORM SARA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL, THOUGH
DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT,
BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH ITS ARRIVAL. THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH SUGGESTS A
LOWER POTENTIAL IN GENERAL WITHOUT STRONG FORCING. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH IN
ADVANCE OF STORMS MONDAY, THOUGH AGAIN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT MAY LIMIT SOME OF THE OVERALL PUNCH OF THE PRE-
FRONTAL WINDS. THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT GRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTING
THESE STRONG WINDS FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN IN THE WAKE
OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, INDICATING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WHILE THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR
TO INVOLVE POLAR AIR GETTING NUDGED SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION, THE
STRONG FLOW SHOULD NUDGE HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST. BUILDING PRESSURE OUT OF THE NORTH AND
WEST WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS BREEZY. ADDITIONAL WIND GRAPHICS
MAY BE NEEDED. AT THIS TIME, IT IS HARD TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS MODELS
GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR FROST OR A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BUILD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO OUR REGION AND WINDS TAPER OFF. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST AT AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE 18Z FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS. THESE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
REGION. BY DAY BREAK MONDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 62 81 68 / 0 0 10 90
MERIDIAN 74 58 78 67 / 0 0 0 80
VICKSBURG 79 63 82 65 / 0 0 10 100
HATTIESBURG 80 61 83 70 / 0 0 10 90
NATCHEZ 80 64 81 67 / 0 0 10 90
GREENVILLE 76 61 79 62 / 20 20 10 100
GREENWOOD 77 61 79 64 / 10 10 0 100
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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